Monday, February 26, 2007

Storminspank's Look at the Bubble Teams for '07

My Look at the Bubble Teams for '07


Last two years' predictions -
2006: 63/65 teams
2005: 65/65 teams


TEAMS THAT I THINK ARE LOCKS/AUTOBIDS (parenthesis contain total number of bids for the conference; the first number is the locks and the second number is the total bids the conference will get as of right now)


Am East(1/1) - Vermont
ACC(6/6) - UNC, VaTech, Virginia, BC, Duke, Maryland
A. Sun(1/1) - Belmont
A-10(1/1) - Xavier
Big East(5/7) - Georgetown, Pitt, Louisville, Notre Dame, Marquette
Big Sky(1/1) - Weber State
Big South(1/1) - Winthrop
Big Ten(4/5) - tOSU, Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan State
Big 12(3/5) - Texas, Kansas, Texas A&M
Big West(1/1) - Long Beach State
CAA(1/2) - Virginia Commonwealth
CUSA(1/1) - Memphis
Horizon(1/1) - Butler
Ivy(1/1) - Penn
MAAC(1/1) - Marist
MAC(1/1) - Toledo
MCC(1/1) - ORU
MEAC(1/1) - Delaware State
MVC(1/3) - S. Illinois
MWC(1/3) - BYU
NEC(1/1) - Monmouth
OVC(1/1) - Central Conn
Patriot(1/1) - Holy Cross
Pac-10(5/6) - UCLA, Washington St., Arizona, USC, Oregon
SEC(4/5) - Florida, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Tennessee
Southern(1/1) - Appalachian State
Southland(1/1) - Sam Houston State
SWAC(1/1) - Jackson State
Sun Belt(1/1) - Western Kentucky
WCC(1/1) - Gonzaga
WAC(1/1) - Nevada


TEAMS THAT I THINK ARE ON THE BUBBLE


So here's who I have on the Bubble... 13 spots are up for grabs
Those teams IN are noted with an asterisk (*).


Georgia Tech
Florida State
Clemson
UMass
Rhode Island
Villanova *
Syracuse *
W. Virginia
DePaul
Illinois *
Purdue *
Michigan
Kansas State *
Texas Tech *
Oklahoma State
Old Dominion
Drexel *
Bradley
Creighton *
Missouri State *
UNLV *
Air Force *
San Diego St
Stanford *
Georgia
Alabama *
Arkansas
Ole Miss
Mississippi State
Davidson

NOTES:
- If Memphis loses in the CUSA Tourney, that league will get two bids.
- If Nevada loses in the WAC TOurney, that league will get two bids.
- If Butler loses in the Horizon Tourney, that league will get two bids.
- If Xavier loses in the A-10 Tourney, the league will probably get two bids.
- It looks as if the Colonial might get 2 bids, it would help Iowa if they only got one.
- If the locks in mid-majors take care of business in their conference tournaments, there might be room for Iowa looking at the current bubble teams.

This will be updated periodically, esp. when the conference tournaments are played.

EDIT 1 - Syracuse beats Georgetown. That's enough to get them in. They take the bid from fellow Big East squad, West Virginia. (02/26/07)

Sunday, February 25, 2007

Ice Storm of 2007

This is the ice I took off of my Jeep. We had a nice little February storm kick up this weekend. Rain, sleet, ice, snow = power outages and a lot of fun. We couldn't go anywhere, so my wife and I got blitzed last night. It was fun. Sometimes staying in is better. Oscars are tonight, big deal in my house. I have Babel winning best picture over The Departed. Fun stuff. Posted by Picasa

Wednesday, February 07, 2007

Iowa's Ranking (RPI/Sagarin/etc) - Season Long Recap Through 2/7/07

SEASON LONG LOOK AT THE FLUCTUATIONS OF THE HAWKEYES' RANKINGS, POST SEASON POSSIBILITIES....

(11/15/06 9:06:29 am)

VERY EARLY RANKINGS

SAGARIN RANKINGS - 61st

RPI - 133rd


(11/16/06 1:46:24 pm)

Bad news, Hawk fans. Due to the actions/results of the past few days by the Iowa program**, the Hawkeye have dropped in RPI and in the Sagarin.

Sagarin: 64
RPI: 167

Woe be us.

And with their win over Rider, NJ Inst of Technology fell to 27th.

** - Note: Iowa didn't play any games.


(11/20/06 11:07:31 am)

RPI: 146
Sagarin: 52

Texas Arlington bolts to the Top 10 RPI with a win over the always tough North Texas team and a loss to TCU.

Robert Morris holding strong in the Top 10 RPI with wins over Marshall and Florida International.


(11/30/06 7:09:50 pm)

RPI: 209
SAGARIN: 106
POMEROY: 132

Iowa has the lowest RPI of any Big Ten team.
Texas-Arlington still clinging to the 11 spot.

Look at the BT RPIs:

Overall Conf Overall Non-Conf
W-L W-L RPI SOS RPI SOS
Indiana 3-2 0-0 17 5 17 5
Ohio St. 6-1 0-0 28 64 28 64
Purdue 5-1 0-0 32 54 32 54
Michigan 7-1 0-0 65 172 65 176
Illinois 7-1 0-0 68 145 68 147
Michigan St. 6-2 0-0 77 117 77 119
Penn St. 4-2 0-0 123 105 123 107
Wisconsin 6-1 0-0 124 238 124 238
Minnesota 2-5 0-0 201 68 202 68
Northwestern 4-2 0-0 205 253 206 253
Iowa 2-4 0-0 209 157 209 160

Wisky at 124?
The Big Ten is 52-22 against D-1 opponents, 5th Conf. RPI. Not too impressive. Looks like the BT is down like most thought it would be, but it's still very early.


(12/10/06 11:12:08 am)

RPI: 169
Kenpom: 87
Sagarin: 123

Moved up in the Pomeroy and RPI, but slipped in the Sagarin.


(12/19/06 1:27:57 pm)

New Big Ten Pomeroy Standings:
- Big Ten #2 Conference in the Nation
- Iowa is 9th

Overall Conf
W-L W-L Pomeroy/Rnk SOS/Rnk NCSOS/Rnk
Ohio St. 9-1 0-0 .9846/3 .5611/139 .5611/146
Illinois 10-2 0-0 .9808/8 .5950/124 .5950/131
Michigan St. 10-2 0-0 .9726/14 .5494/148 .5494/158
Indiana 6-3 0-0 .9701/15 .7000/54 .7000/66
Purdue 8-2 0-0 .9650/17 .7263/43 .7263/55
Wisconsin 11-1 0-0 .9552/26 .4771/188 .4771/197
Michigan 11-1 0-0 .9242/44 .2689/306 .2689/305
Northwestern 6-2 0-0 .7164/107 .3705/253 .3705/255
Iowa 5-6 0-0 .6982/110 .5996/121 .5996/128
Penn St. 7-4 0-0 .5942/132 .3111/286 .3111/290
Minnesota 5-7 0-0 .5414/138 .4258/222 .4258/222

kenpom.com/conf.php?y=2007&c=B10&t=p


Big Ten RPI Standings
- Big Ten is 5th
- Iowa is 10th

Through games of Monday, December 18
Overall Conf Overall Non-Conf
W-L W-L RPI SOS RPI SOS
Wisconsin 11-1 0-0 11 55 11 66
Purdue 8-2 0-0 12 11 12 16
Ohio St. 9-1 0-0 21 102 23 114
Indiana 6-3 0-0 41 27 38 34
Illinois 10-2 0-0 43 82 40 95
Michigan St. 10-2 0-0 47 134 46 149
Michigan 11-1 0-0 81 290 83 291
Northwestern 5-2 0-0 147 204 154 213
Penn St. 7-4 0-0 159 166 166 182
Iowa 5-6 0-0 179 118 185 133
Minnesota 5-7 0-0 201 77 206 89

Sagarin Big Ten Standings

CONFERENCE CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS

1 ATLANTIC COAST = 84.63 84.48 ( 1) 12
2 SOUTHEASTERN = 83.42 82.82 ( 2) 12
3 BIG TEN = 81.93 81.21 ( 4) 11
4 PACIFIC-10 = 81.60 81.55 ( 3) 10
5 BIG EAST = 80.81 80.77 ( 6) 16
6 MISSOURI VALLEY = 80.36 81.19 ( 5) 10
7 BIG 12 = 80.28 79.77 ( 7) 12
8 MOUNTAIN WEST = 77.91 78.27 ( 8) 9
9 CONFERENCE USA = 75.61 75.67 ( 9) 12
10 WESTERN ATHLETIC = 74.97 74.16 ( 11) 9

RPI: 179
Kenpom: 110
Sagarin: 131

Fell in all three rankings.


(1/1/07 7:03:09 pm)

RPI: 156 (up ~ 25 spots)
Pomeroy: 85 (up ~30 spots)
Sagarin: 123 (up ~ 10 spots)

Big Ten dropped from 3rd to 5th in Sagarin Conf. rankings
Big Ten stayed at 2nd in Pomeroy Conf. rankings
Big Ten stayed at 5th in RPI Conf. rankings

Iowa moved up one spot in the Big Ten RPI, stayed 9th in the Pomeroy in the BT.


(1/7/07 12:46:26 am)

RPI: 113 (up 40 spots)
Pomeroy: 73 (up 12 spots)
Sagarin: 106 (up 17 spots)


(1/8/07 9:46:21 am)

Since the weekend games:

RPI: 108 (moved up an additional 5 spots)
Pomeroy: 70 (moved up 3 more spots)
Sagarin: 100 (up another 6 spots)
Greenfield: 104
Massey: 98
Composite link from 26 ratings: 114 (one week behind)


(1/14/07 9:41:51 pm)

RPI: 109 (moved down 1 spot)
Pomeroy: 68 (moved up 2 more spots)
Sagarin: 94 (up 6 spots)
Greenfield: 102 (up 2 spots)
Massey: 99 (down 1 spot)
Composite link from 26 ratings: 92 (up 22 spots)

Iowa's Highest Ranking - 57 (Lynch)
Iowa's Lowest Ranking - 124 (SAP)


(1/26/07 10:42 am)

RPI: 111 (moved down 2 spots)
Pomeroy: 66 (moved up 2 spots)
Sagarin: 85 (moved up 9 spots)
Greenfield: 91 (moved up 11 spots)
Massey: 95 (moved up 4 spots)
Massey Composite link from 26 ratings: 93 (down 1 spot)

Iowa's Highest Ranking - 66 (Moore)
Iowa's Lowest Ranking - 136 (SAP)


(2/05/07 6:17 pm)

RPI: 86 (moved up 25 spots)
Pomeroy: 62 (moved up 4 spots)
Sagarin: 78 (moved up 7 spots)
Greenfield: 72 (moved up 19 spots)
Massey: 76 (moved up 19 spots)
Massey Composite link from 26 ratings: 80 (moved up 13 spots)

Iowa's Highest Ranking - 49 (Pigskin)
Iowa's Lowest Ranking - 118 (Rennie)


BIG TEN OUTLOOK:

Overall Conf W-L W-L Pomeroy/Rnk SOS/Rnk NCSOS/Rnk

Ohio St. 20-3 8-1 .9829/5 .7512/19 .5578/139
Wisconsin 22-2 8-1 .9797/6 .6894/47 .5263/159
Indiana 16-6 6-3 .9661/12 .7864/7 .6281/89
Iowa 13-10 5-4 .8755/62 .7095/37 .4609/220
Illinois 17-8 5-5 .9263/37 .7152/33 .5027/178
Michigan 16-7 4-4 .8925/55 .6297/95 .4102/260
Michigan St. 17-7 4-5 .9549/17 .6937/45 .4804/199
Purdue 15-8 4-5 .9082/44 .7482/20 .5859/117
Minnesota 9-14 3-6 .5705/141 .6829/55 .4773/202
Penn St. 10-11 1-7 .6703/114 .5567/141 .2975/319
Northwestern 11-11 1-8 .6874/106 .7065/40 .3827/277


TOP TEN RPI CONFERENCES:

Rnk Conference                        W-L   Pct    Overall RPI       SOS(Rank)      Non-Conf   RPI Hi  Lo  Avg Median
1 Atlantic Coast Conference 128-33 .795 .5912 .5204 ( 6) .5766 ( 2) 2 163 53 33
2 Southeastern Conference 126-38 .768 .5899 .5290 ( 3) .5783 ( 1) 6 91 49 48
3 Pac 10 Conference 90-24 .789 .5849 .5176 ( 8) .5734 ( 3) 1 233 67 40
4 Big Ten Conference 115-38 .752 .5749 .5186 ( 7) .5621 ( 5) 4 197 73 47
5 Missouri Valley Conference 74-27 .733 .5699 .5108 (10) .5711 ( 4) 9 138 72 58
6 Big XII Conference 119-40 .748 .5674 .5080 (13) .5556 ( 6) 13 210 76 67
7 Big East Conference 156-52 .750 .5671 .5077 (14) .5496 ( 7) 3 188 77 59
8 Mountain West Conference 81-33 .711 .5603 .5011 (18) .5462 ( 8) 11 199 86 98
9 Western Athletic Conference 61-49 .555 .5212 .5083 (12) .5188 ( 9) 28 278 135 109
10 Atlantic 10 Conference 97-81 .545 .5153 .5074 (15) .5107 (12)

Fans Need to Lay Off Coach Alford; Iowa's NCAA Tourney Chances?

As I have written previously in my blog, I sincerely feel as if Steve Alford has turned the corner as the coach at the University of Iowa. Some think the turnaround happened last year, some think this year. Still others think Coach Alford should be run out of town. I will stick to my guns on the fact that I believe Alford made his move during the 03-04 season.

The coming out party was three years ago during the 03-04 season. Alford was able to rally the troops. Jared Reiner had a season-ending injury that hurt the Hawkeyes tremendously, as Brunner had to switch to the 5 spot. Reiner had a chance to be All-Conf. that year. Nick DeWitz and Sean Sonderleiter both left mid-season, which killed the continuity (and already short bench) of the team. Mike Henderson was ineligible for the second semester. Depending on Kurt Spurgeon and Jack Brownlee isn't something I wish upon any basketball program. I give them all the credit in the world, as they stepped up big, but let's be reasonable here. Iowa played with SEVEN scholarship players that year. SEVEN. They didn't make the dance, but it was the beginning of the turnaround for Alford, IMO.

The next year starts out great, then PP is kicked off. Hawks falter big time. Alford rallies the troops and gets into the dance.

Last year, nothing bad happening to the program, the team can focus on the season. Alford gets a 25 win season.

This year, injury to Mike early, no consistency on a inexperienced team, crappy practice times - not all players making all practices; second semester this team has a completely different look to it. They are playing extremely good BB right now, fantastic job by the coaching staff.

Alford first four seasons: 73-58 overall (25-39 conf)
Alford last three-plus seasons: 76-44 overall (33-25 conf)


I know I keep beating a dead-horse and no one agrees with me, but I truly think Alford turned the corner in 03-04 and has gotten better and better every year there after.




IOWA'S CHANCES AT AN AT-LARGE NCAA BERTH?

52.17%

This second half of the season team is heads and shoulders above the first half team.

If Iowa can steal one at either MSU or Wisky and take care of the rest, get one win in the BTT, they are in.

Otherwise, they probably need to go 4-2 with 2 BTT wins, 1 BTT win would put them on the bubble.

Don't mess with my BB predictions, I'm unconscious right now:
http://www.mostlynothing.com/2006/12/iowa-basketball-predicting-rest-of.html