MEN'S BB: 2009 NCAA Tournament & My Bubble Team Analysis (Saturday Night Update)

STORMINSPANK'S BRACKETOLOGY

2nd Official Look at Bubble Teams for 2009 and Projecting the NCAA Tourney Field.
This will likely be the last update, as tomorrow's games really have limited bearing on the field.

UPDATES:
Oklahoma State moves from Bubble to Lock.
Wisconsin moves from Lock to Bubble.
Ohio State moves from Bubble to Lock.
Utah State moves from Bubble to Lock.
Penn State OUT.
St. Mary's OUT.
Arizona OUT.
Auburn IN.
SDSU IN.
USC IN.
Temple IN.

LAST FIVE IN:

Florida

Dayton

Creighton

Auburn

San Diego State

LAST FIVE OUT:

Boston College

Arizona

Maryland

St Mary's

Penn State

TEAMS THAT I THINK ARE LOCKS/AUTOBIDS (parenthesis contain total number of bids for the conference; the first number is the locks and the second number is the total bids the conference will get as of right now).

LOCKS

NUMBER ONE SEEDS: NORTH CAROLINA, UCONN, MEMPHIS, LOUISVILLE

Am East (1/1) - BINGHAMTON
ACC (5/5) - North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State
A. Sun (1/1) - ETSU
A-10 (2/3) - TEMPLE, Xavier
Big East (7/7) - UConn, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Marquette, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia
Big Sky (1/1) - PORTLAND STATE
Big South (1/1) - RADFORD
Big Ten (4/7) - Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Ohio State
Big 12 (6/6) - Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M
Big West (1/1) - CSN or PACIFIC
CAA (1/1) - VCU
CUSA (1/1) - MEMPHIS
Horizon (1/2) - CLEVELAND STATE
Ivy (1/1) - CORNELL
MAAC (1/1) - SIENNA
MAC (1/1) - AKRON
MEAC (1/1) - MORGAN STATE
MVC (1/2) - NORTHERN IOWA
MWC (2/3) - UTAH, BYU
NEC (1/1) - ROBERT MORRIS
OVC (1/1) - MOREHEAD STATE
Patriot (1/1) - AMERICAN
Pac-10 (5/5 ) - USC, UCLA, Arizona State, Washington, California
SEC (2/4) - LSU, Tennessee
Southern (1/1) - CHATTANOOGA
Southland (1/1) - UTSA or SF AUSTIN
Summit (1/1) - NORTH DAKOTA STATE
SWAC (1/1) - ALABAMA STATE
Sun Belt (1/1) - WESTERN KENTUCKY
WCC (1/1) - GONZAGA
WAC (1/1) - UTAH STATE


CAP/BOLD TEAMS WON THEIR CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT

BUBBLE TEAMS

9 spots are up for grabs - 29 teams up for the spots.

65 teams - 56 listed above = 9 bubble teams.

Those teams IN are noted with an asterisk (*).

ACC:
Miami
Boston College
Maryland
Virginia Tech

A10:
Dayton *
Rhode Island

BIG EAST:
Providence

BIG TEN:
Wisconsin *
Michigan *
Minnesota *
Penn State
Northwestern

BIG XII:
Kansas State
Nebraska

C-USA:
UAB
Tulsa

HORIZON:
Butler *

MVC:
Creighton *
Illinois State

MWC:
UNLV
New Mexico
San Diego State *

PAC-10:
Arizona

SEC:
Auburn *
South Carolina
Florida *
Kentucky

SOUTHERN:
Davidson

WCC:
St. Mary's

Ranking of the Bubble Teams (As of 3/14/2009)							9 Teams
Rank	Prev. Rank	+/-	Team	Conference	Overall	Conf	RPI	SOS	L10	Top 50 Record	Prev RPI	RPI Diiff
1	3	2	Butler	Horizon	26-5	15-3	22	94	7-3	2-1	24	2
2	6	4	Michigan	B10	20-13	9-9	43	11	5-5	6-10	42	-1
3	0	-3	Wisconsin	B10	19-12	10-8	48	12	7-3	4-10	48	0
4	10	6	Minnesota	B10	22-10	9-9	37	33	4-6	5-8	40	3
5	9	4	Florida	SEC	23-10	9-7	51	84	4-6	1-5	48	-3
6	4	-2	Dayton	A10	26-7	11-5	30	89	6-4	3-2	23	-7
7	12	5	Creighton	MVC	26-7	14-4	41	112	9-1	2-2	41	0
8	17	9	Auburn	SEC	22-11	10-6	59	67	9-1	2-3	66	7
9	21	12	SDSU	MWC	23-9	11-5	26	51	7-3	2-5	43	17
10	15	5	Boston College	ACC	22-11	9-7	56	58	5-5	4-5	56	0
11	8	-3	Arizona	P10	19-13	9-9	57	32	5-5	6-10	53	-4
12	20	8	Maryland	ACC	20-13	7-9	52	22	6-4	4-7	67	15
13	7	-6	St Mary's	WCC	26-6	10-4	47	148	7-3	2-3	45	-2
14	11	-3	Penn State	B10	22-11	10-8	67	87	5-5	6-9	64	-3
15	13	-2	UAB	CUSA	22-11	11-5	46	73	7-3	0-5	44	-2
16	18	2	UNLV	MWC	21-10	9-7	65	81	4-6	4-5	57	-8
17	14	-3	New Mexico	MWC	21-11	12-4	66	79	8-2	3-4	58	-8
18	23	5	Davidson	Southern	26-7	18-2	72	164	6-4	1-4	72	0
19	32	13	Virginia Tech	ACC	18-14	7-9	58	19	3-7	2-9	63	5
20	16	-4	South Carolina	SEC	21-9	10-6	63	93	5-5	1-4	49	-14
21	29	8	Tulsa	CUSA	24-10	12-4	61	108	8-2	3-6	61	0
22	22	0	Kansas State	B12	21-11	9-7	83	96	6-4	3-7	75	-8
23	26	3	Rhode Island	A10	22-10	11-5	68	122	7-3	2-5	65	-3
24	27	3	Nebraska	B12	18-12	8-8	78	57	6-4	4-8	68	-10
25	28	3	Providence	Big East	19-13	10-8	71	50	5-5	2-9	70	-1
26	30	4	Illinois State	MVC	24-9	11-7	45	106	5-5	2-2	46	1
27	31	4	Kentucky	SEC	20-13	8-8	79	60	4-6	3-4	81	2
28	25	-3	Northwestern	B10	17-13	8-10	74	45	4-6	6-10	69	-5
29	33	4	Miami	ACC	18-12	7-9	59	29	4-6	2-7	52	-7

Saturday Edtion of Storminspank's Bracketology Coming Later Tonight

Several changes (as always on the day before Selection Sunday).

Some off the top of my head are Wisconsin moving from a lock to on the bubble, but IN. Also Oklahoma State is easily a lock, and Ohio State is most certainly a lock, as well. There will also be bubble spots taken away as some conf. tourney champs have stolen them from others.

Later tonight, I will put out my updated list.

MEN'S BB: 2009 BIG TEN TOURNAMENT - Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Michigan Wolverines

VS.
GAME INFO: Thu., Mar. 12th, 2009 - 1:30 PM CST - Conseco Fieldhouse; Indianapolis, IN
IOWA: 15-16 (5-13, 10th); POM: 84; RPI: 112 / MICHIGAN: 19-12 (9-9, 7th); POM: 55; RPI: 42

TV COVERAGE: ESPN2 - Rumor has it even Erin Andrews will be there. Watch out for photoshoppers!
RADIO: Links
LINE - Iowa is a 5.5 point dog on a neutral court.

LIVE GAME BLOGS:
Hawkeyenation
GazetteOnline - Hlas and Dochterman
BlackHeartGoldPants

It's rubber match time.

The winner of this matchup has a very good shot at doing well in this tournament. Being on the 2 and 3 seed side is a huge benefit when neither of those seeds are the MSU Spartans. The 7/10 hole has been productive in the past in this tourney, as well, so history is behind it.

I have never liked how Iowa matches up with UM. Harris and Sims are two of the more talented and athletics guys in the Big Ten. However, if Tate can get his ankle shored up after that amazing one-legged performance last time out vs. PSU, Iowa will stick with the Wolves.

Iowa has been in almost every game this year, and with Jake Kelly at the point, the Hawks are much more explosive. I really enjoy watching Jake run the show, he can create a lot of opportunities for Iowa when he has the rock. I also love see both Tate and Cole out there at the same time - what a missed opportuniy that was this year!

This game really could go either way. I think the point spread is a bit high, but Lickliter has had his trouble beaten Beilein in the past.

TODAY'S PROJECTED HAWKEYE KILLER: Manny Harris. Jake destroyed him last time out. And although the Big Ten doesn't recognize it, Kelly is one of the best defenders in the Big Ten. Jake shut him down last time out and (reportedly) forced Beilein to bench his star player in the overtime session. I think Manny is out for redemption in this one.

PREDICTION:
Iowa - 65
Michigan - 69

MEN'S BB: 2009 Big Ten Tournament Predictions

I think whomever wins the Iowa-UM game has a VERY good shot at doing some damage. The problem is, I think UM wins it today. Here's how I see the bracket:

MEN'S BB: 2009 NCAA Tournament & My Bubble Team Analysis (Wednesday Night Update)

STORMINSPANK'S BRACKETOLOGY

Initial Look at Bubble Teams for 2009 and Projecting the NCAA Tourney Field

TEAMS THAT I THINK ARE LOCKS/AUTOBIDS (parenthesis contain total number of bids for the conference; the first number is the locks and the second number is the total bids the conference will get as of right now).

As always, it is assumed for the major conferences that the locks will contain the conf. tourney champion. If someone who isn't a lock wins the conf. tourney, obviously a bubble spot is removed. The Bubble is very fluid the next couple days, a team like Ohio State can win it's first tourney game and they would then go to the lock category, or, as previously mentioned, a non-locked team could win its conf tourney, removing a bubble spot.

LOCKS

NUMBER ONE SEEDS: NORTH CAROLINA, UCONN, MEMPHIS, PITT

Am East (1/1) - UMBC or BINGHAMTON
ACC (5/5) - North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest , Clemson, Florida State
A. Sun (1/1) - ETSU
A-10 (1/2) - Xavier
Big East (7/7) - UConn, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Marquette, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia
Big Sky (1/1) - PORTLAND STATE
Big South (1/1) - RADFORD
Big Ten (4/8) - Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Wisconsin
Big 12 (5/6) - Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
Big West (1/1) - AUTOBID
CAA (1/1) - VCU
CUSA (1/1) - Memphis
Horizon (1/2) - CLEVELAND STATE
Ivy (1/1) - CORNELL
MAAC (1/1) - SIENNA
MAC (1/1) - AUTOBID
MEAC (1/1) - AUTOBID
MVC (1/2) - NORTHERN IOWA
MWC (2/2) - Utah, BYU
NEC (1/1) - ROBERT MORRIS
OVC (1/1) - MOREHEAD STATE
Patriot (1/1) - AMERICAN or HOLY CROSS
Pac-10 (4/5 ) - UCLA, Arizona State, Washington, California
SEC (2/3) - LSU, Tennessee
Southern (1/1) - CHATTANOOGA
Southland (1/1) - AUTOBID
Summit (1/1) - NORTH DAKOTA STATE
SWAC (1/1) - AUTOBID
Sun Belt (1/) - WESTERN KENTUCKY
WCC (1/2) - GONZAGA
WAC (1/1) - AUTOBID (Should be Utah State, if it is, a Bubble spot opens up)


CAP/BOLD TEAMS WON THEIR CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT

BUBBLE TEAMS

12 spots are up for grabs - 33 teams up for the spots.

65 teams - 31 automatic bid = 34 at large teams - 22 locks (I assume a lock wins the conf tourney)= 12 bubble teams. Or an easier way to look at it: 65 teams - 53 listed above = 12 bubble teams.

Those teams IN are noted with an asterisk (*).

ACC:
Miami
Boston College
Maryland
Virginia Tech

A10:
Dayton *
Temple
Rhode Island

BIG EAST:
Providence

BIG TEN:
Ohio State *
Michigan *
Minnesota *
Penn State *
Northwestern

BIG XII:
Oklahoma State *
Kansas State
Nebraska

C-USA:
UAB
Tulsa

HORIZON:
Butler *

MVC:
Creighton *
Illinois State

MWC:
UNLV
New Mexico
San Diego State

PAC-10:
Arizona *
USC

SEC:
Auburn
South Carolina
Florida *
Kentucky

SOUTHERN:
Davidson

WCC:
Utah State *

WCC:
St. Mary's *

Ranking of the Bubble Teams (As of 3/11/2009)							12 Teams
Rank	Prev. Rank	+/-	Team	Conference	Overall	Conf	RPI	SOS	L10	Top 50 Record	Prev RPI	RPI Diiff
1	NA	####	Oklahoma State	B12	21-10	9-7	25	9	7-3	3-9	25	0
2	NA	####	Ohio State	B10	20-9	10-8	36	31	6-4	5-8	36	0
3	NA	####	Butler	Horizon	26-5	15-3	24	94	7-3	2-1	24	0
4	NA	####	Dayton	A10	25-6	11-5	23	95	6-4	4-2	23	0
5	NA	####	Utah State	WAC	27-4	14-2	26	137	7-3	1-2	26	0
6	NA	####	Michigan	B10	19-12	9-9	42	10	5-5	6-9	42	0
7	NA	####	St Mary's	WCC	25-6	10-4	45	144	7-3	2-3	45	0
8	NA	####	Arizona	P10	19-12	9-9	53	32	6-4	5-8	53	0
9	NA	####	Florida	SEC	22-9	9-7	48	86	4-6	2-6	48	0
10	NA	####	Minnesota	B10	21-9	9-9	40	38	4-6	5-7	40	0
11	NA	####	Penn State	B10	21-10	10-8	64	82	5-5	6-8	64	0
12	NA	####	Creighton	MVC	26-7	14-4	41	107	9-1	3-2	41	0
13	NA	####	UAB	CUSA	21-10	11-5	44	75	8-2	0-5	44	0
14	NA	####	New Mexico	MWC	21-10	12-4	58	80	8-2	3-4	58	0
15	NA	####	Boston College	ACC	21-10	9-7	56	58	6-4	4-4	56	0
16	NA	####	South Carolina	SEC	21-8	10-6	49	93	6-4	1-5	49	0
17	NA	####	Auburn	SEC	21-10	10-6	66	71	8-2	2-5	66	0
18	NA	####	UNLV	MWC	21-9	9-7	57	85	5-5	4-4	57	0
19	NA	####	Temple	A10	19-10	11-5	39	49	7-3	1-5	39	0
20	NA	####	Maryland	ACC	18-12	7-9	67	27	5-5	2-7	67	0
21	NA	####	San Diego State	MWC	21-8	11-5	43	66	7-3	1-5	43	0
22	NA	####	Kansas State	B12	21-10	9-7	75	98	7-3	3-5	75	0
23	NA	####	Davidson	Southern	26-7	18-2	72	164	6-4	1-4	72	0
24	NA	####	USC	P10	18-12	9-9	59	30	4-6	2-8	59	0
25	NA	####	Northwestern	B10	17-12	8-10	69	45	5-5	6-9	69	0
26	NA	####	Rhode Island	A10	22-9	11-5	65	123	8-2	2-5	65	0
27	NA	####	Nebraska	B12	18-12	8-8	68	54	6-4	3-7	68	0
28	NA	####	Providence	Big East	19-12	10-8	70	47	4-6	2-7	70	0
29	NA	####	Tulsa	CUSA	22-9	12-4	61	97	8-2	2-6	61	0
30	NA	####	Illinois State	MVC	24-9	11-7	46	106	5-5	2-1	46	0
31	NA	####	Kentucky	SEC	19-12	8-8	81	62	3-7	4-6	81	0
32	NA	####	Virginia Tech	ACC	17-13	7-9	63	23	3-7	2-8	63	0
33	NA	####	Miami	ACC	18-11	7-9	52	24	4-6	2-7	52	0

NOTES: The Big Ten has a lot to lose in the Big Ten Tourney. Minnesota, Michigan, and Penn State can play themselves out of the Dance with a loss in the first round. While the SEC teams have everything to gain in their conf. tourney. Auburn and SC can punch their cards with a couple wins.

MEN'S BB: 2009 NCAA Tournament & My Bubble Team Analysis (Previous Results)

Over the past four years (and the original reason I set up this blog) I have made my predictions on who gets in and who stays home on Selection Sunday. During Championship Week, I usually unveil who I think is in/out. Normally at the end of February / beginning of March I put out my Bubble Watch - I slept on that this year. And even this post is about 4 days overdue. I am currently working on my list 65, including my shake of bubble teams.

Here's a look at previous years:

2008 - 64 out of 65 teams correctly picked. (98.7%, .981 overall)
2007 - 63 out of 65 teams correctly picked. (96.9%, .979 overall)
2006 - 63 out of 65 teams correctly picked. (96.9%, .985 overall)
2005 - 65 out of 65 teams correctly picked. (100%, 1.000 overall)

2009 picks to be released very soon.

MEN'S BB: Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Penn State Nittany Lions

VS.

SENIOR DAY

GAME INFO: Sat., Mar. 7th, 2009 - 1:05 PM CST - Carver-Hawkeye Arena; Iowa City, IA
IOWA: 14-16 (4-13, 10th); POM: 86; RPI: 105 / PENN STATE: 21-9 (10-7, 5th); POM: 77; RPI: 42

TV COVERAGE: BTN. Craig Coshun and Shon Morris will call the action.
RADIO: Links
GAME NOTES: HERE
LINE - Iowa is a 3 point favorite at home.

LIVE GAME BLOGS:
GazetteOnline
BlackHeartGoldPants

It's Senior Day. The crowd should be jacked. The players should remember what went down last time these two teams played. I do not expect any love lost between the Hawks and Lions.

I'm on the road today, so I am not going into depth in this prediction/preview. But I will say this, I like Iowa in this one and I like them big. I haven't been able to say that about this team since The Citadel game. PSU is a decent team, but I really like the matchup today.

TODAY'S PROJECTED HAWKEYE KILLER: None. Iowa is going to shut down the Lions, especially Talor Battle.

PREDICTION:
Iowa - 69
Penn State - 56

MEN'S BB: Steve Alford Finally Addresses Hawkeye Fans

All credit goes to esteemed Hawkeye fan, GumbyHawk, for this creation. It was too good to not pass along.

WARNING: NSFW due to language.

Enjoy.




http://www.xtranormal.com/watch?e=20090306193045768

MEN'S BB: Devan Bawinkel is 4th in the NATION

Devan Bawinkel is 4th in the nation in turnover%.

He's played something like 550+ minutes. And has just 8 turnovers.

http://kenpom.com/leaders.php?c=TORate

Sure, he's a set shooter, so he's not putting it on the floor much, but compared to others on the team, he just never turns it over.

Thought that was interesting.

Oh, and he was 1 three pointer away from the Iowa single game record tonight as he hit 8 treys, tying Justin Johnson's feat that was accomplished twice last year.

MEN'S BB: Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Ohio State Buckeyes

VS.
GAME INFO: Tues., Mar. 3rd, 2009 - 8:05 PM CST - Carver-Hawkeye Arena; Iowa City, IA
IOWA: 14-15 (4-12, 10th); POM: 82; RPI: 105 / OHIO STATE: 18-9 (8-8, 6th); POM: 46; RPI: 42

TV COVERAGE: BTN. Wayne Larrivee and Tim McCormick will call the action.
RADIO: Links
GAME NOTES: HERE
LINE - Iowa is a 1 point underdog at home.

LIVE GAME BLOGS:
Hawkeyenation
GazetteOnline
BlackHeartGoldPants

Iowa looks like a very capable team with Jake Kelly at the point. He is averaging over 20 points per game his last three games, this after having never eclipsed the 20 point in his collegiate career.

Jarryd Cole continues to impress me with his attitude, hard work, and spark he provides the team.

It's clear we won't see a 100% Cyrus Tate ever don the black and gold again for Iowa, but he's giving his all on the court. At one point in the first half, after picking up his third foul, Lickliter was about to sub in for him. Tate looked back at the bench and said something along the lines of, "Don't take me out. I'm not going to foul." Lickliter went with his captain's advice and Tate finished out the roughly 2 minutes of the half without committing a foul.

It sounds as if Peterson will suit, but not be available tonight again. Iowa misses his handle, but as previously mentioned, Jake Kelly has done more than an admirable job in his absence.

Ohio State is 3-6 on the road, and Iowa is 12-3 at home (losses all to Top 25 teams). The Buckeyes have lost 4 out of 5 and have effectively played themselves off the bubble for the NCAA tourney.

Iowa will likely have issues containing Ohio State's bigs in this one, but I think Tate and Cole can do a lot of damage control down low. The Hawks are going to need to rebound tonight.

Hlas writes that there are postseason ramifications for this game. While I agree on that Iowa has a shot at postseason, I think the Hawkeyes are already sitting very pretty to get to the postseason. Iowa has the best Pomeroy rating of any team in the nation at or below .500 (and better than quite a few teams above .500). They are right around the 80 mark, which arguably means at this time of the season Iowa is one of the top 80 teams in the nation. NIT is likely out, but either of the two other tourney would love to get Iowa.

Back to the game at hand - KenPom gives Iowa a 50% chance to win this game.

TODAY'S PROJECTED HAWKEYE KILLER: Jon Diebler. You can be sure that Jake Kelly is going to take Evan Turner, so that leaves likely Bawinkle on Diebler. Not good. It was not good to the tune of 27 points last time out vs. Iowa. Hopefully Lick sticks Gatens on Diebler.

I like Iowa in this one even if we only get 10K inside Carver.

PREDICTION:
Iowa - 66
Ohio State - 62