2nd Official Look at Bubble Teams for 2009 and Projecting the NCAA Tourney Field.
This will likely be the last update, as tomorrow's games really have limited bearing on the field.
UPDATES:
Oklahoma State moves from Bubble to Lock.
Wisconsin moves from Lock to Bubble.
Ohio State moves from Bubble to Lock.
Utah State moves from Bubble to Lock.
Penn State OUT.
St. Mary's OUT.
Arizona OUT.
Auburn IN.
SDSU IN.
USC IN.
Temple IN.
LAST FIVE IN:
| Florida |
| Dayton |
| Creighton |
| Auburn |
| San Diego State |
LAST FIVE OUT:
| Boston College |
| Arizona |
| Maryland |
| St Mary's |
| Penn State |
TEAMS THAT I THINK ARE LOCKS/AUTOBIDS (parenthesis contain total number of bids for the conference; the first number is the locks and the second number is the total bids the conference will get as of right now).
LOCKS
NUMBER ONE SEEDS: NORTH CAROLINA, UCONN, MEMPHIS, LOUISVILLE
Am East (1/1) - BINGHAMTON
ACC (5/5) - North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State
A. Sun (1/1) - ETSU
A-10 (2/3) - TEMPLE, Xavier
Big East (7/7) - UConn, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Marquette, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia
Big Sky (1/1) - PORTLAND STATE
Big South (1/1) - RADFORD
Big Ten (4/7) - Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Ohio State
Big 12 (6/6) - Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M
Big West (1/1) - CSN or PACIFIC
CAA (1/1) - VCU
CUSA (1/1) - MEMPHIS
Horizon (1/2) - CLEVELAND STATE
Ivy (1/1) - CORNELL
MAAC (1/1) - SIENNA
MAC (1/1) - AKRON
MEAC (1/1) - MORGAN STATE
MVC (1/2) - NORTHERN IOWA
MWC (2/3) - UTAH, BYU
NEC (1/1) - ROBERT MORRIS
OVC (1/1) - MOREHEAD STATE
Patriot (1/1) - AMERICAN
Pac-10 (5/5 ) - USC, UCLA, Arizona State, Washington, California
SEC (2/4) - LSU, Tennessee
Southern (1/1) - CHATTANOOGA
Southland (1/1) - UTSA or SF AUSTIN
Summit (1/1) - NORTH DAKOTA STATE
SWAC (1/1) - ALABAMA STATE
Sun Belt (1/1) - WESTERN KENTUCKY
WCC (1/1) - GONZAGA
WAC (1/1) - UTAH STATE
CAP/BOLD TEAMS WON THEIR CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT
BUBBLE TEAMS
9 spots are up for grabs - 29 teams up for the spots.
65 teams - 56 listed above = 9 bubble teams.
Those teams IN are noted with an asterisk (*).
ACC:
Miami
Boston College
Maryland
Virginia Tech
A10:
Dayton *
Rhode Island
BIG EAST:
Providence
BIG TEN:
Wisconsin *
Michigan *
Minnesota *
Penn State
Northwestern
BIG XII:
Kansas State
Nebraska
C-USA:
UAB
Tulsa
HORIZON:
Butler *
MVC:
Creighton *
Illinois State
MWC:
UNLV
New Mexico
San Diego State *
PAC-10:
Arizona
SEC:
Auburn *
South Carolina
Florida *
Kentucky
SOUTHERN:
Davidson
WCC:
St. Mary's
| Ranking of the Bubble Teams (As of 3/14/2009) | 9 Teams | |||||||||||
| Rank | Prev. Rank | +/- | Team | Conference | Overall | Conf | RPI | SOS | L10 | Top 50 Record | Prev RPI | RPI Diiff |
| 1 | 3 | 2 | Butler | Horizon | 26-5 | 15-3 | 22 | 94 | 7-3 | 2-1 | 24 | 2 |
| 2 | 6 | 4 | Michigan | B10 | 20-13 | 9-9 | 43 | 11 | 5-5 | 6-10 | 42 | -1 |
| 3 | 0 | -3 | Wisconsin | B10 | 19-12 | 10-8 | 48 | 12 | 7-3 | 4-10 | 48 | 0 |
| 4 | 10 | 6 | Minnesota | B10 | 22-10 | 9-9 | 37 | 33 | 4-6 | 5-8 | 40 | 3 |
| 5 | 9 | 4 | Florida | SEC | 23-10 | 9-7 | 51 | 84 | 4-6 | 1-5 | 48 | -3 |
| 6 | 4 | -2 | Dayton | A10 | 26-7 | 11-5 | 30 | 89 | 6-4 | 3-2 | 23 | -7 |
| 7 | 12 | 5 | Creighton | MVC | 26-7 | 14-4 | 41 | 112 | 9-1 | 2-2 | 41 | 0 |
| 8 | 17 | 9 | Auburn | SEC | 22-11 | 10-6 | 59 | 67 | 9-1 | 2-3 | 66 | 7 |
| 9 | 21 | 12 | SDSU | MWC | 23-9 | 11-5 | 26 | 51 | 7-3 | 2-5 | 43 | 17 |
| 10 | 15 | 5 | Boston College | ACC | 22-11 | 9-7 | 56 | 58 | 5-5 | 4-5 | 56 | 0 |
| 11 | 8 | -3 | Arizona | P10 | 19-13 | 9-9 | 57 | 32 | 5-5 | 6-10 | 53 | -4 |
| 12 | 20 | 8 | Maryland | ACC | 20-13 | 7-9 | 52 | 22 | 6-4 | 4-7 | 67 | 15 |
| 13 | 7 | -6 | St Mary's | WCC | 26-6 | 10-4 | 47 | 148 | 7-3 | 2-3 | 45 | -2 |
| 14 | 11 | -3 | Penn State | B10 | 22-11 | 10-8 | 67 | 87 | 5-5 | 6-9 | 64 | -3 |
| 15 | 13 | -2 | UAB | CUSA | 22-11 | 11-5 | 46 | 73 | 7-3 | 0-5 | 44 | -2 |
| 16 | 18 | 2 | UNLV | MWC | 21-10 | 9-7 | 65 | 81 | 4-6 | 4-5 | 57 | -8 |
| 17 | 14 | -3 | New Mexico | MWC | 21-11 | 12-4 | 66 | 79 | 8-2 | 3-4 | 58 | -8 |
| 18 | 23 | 5 | Davidson | Southern | 26-7 | 18-2 | 72 | 164 | 6-4 | 1-4 | 72 | 0 |
| 19 | 32 | 13 | Virginia Tech | ACC | 18-14 | 7-9 | 58 | 19 | 3-7 | 2-9 | 63 | 5 |
| 20 | 16 | -4 | South Carolina | SEC | 21-9 | 10-6 | 63 | 93 | 5-5 | 1-4 | 49 | -14 |
| 21 | 29 | 8 | Tulsa | CUSA | 24-10 | 12-4 | 61 | 108 | 8-2 | 3-6 | 61 | 0 |
| 22 | 22 | 0 | Kansas State | B12 | 21-11 | 9-7 | 83 | 96 | 6-4 | 3-7 | 75 | -8 |
| 23 | 26 | 3 | Rhode Island | A10 | 22-10 | 11-5 | 68 | 122 | 7-3 | 2-5 | 65 | -3 |
| 24 | 27 | 3 | Nebraska | B12 | 18-12 | 8-8 | 78 | 57 | 6-4 | 4-8 | 68 | -10 |
| 25 | 28 | 3 | Providence | Big East | 19-13 | 10-8 | 71 | 50 | 5-5 | 2-9 | 70 | -1 |
| 26 | 30 | 4 | Illinois State | MVC | 24-9 | 11-7 | 45 | 106 | 5-5 | 2-2 | 46 | 1 |
| 27 | 31 | 4 | Kentucky | SEC | 20-13 | 8-8 | 79 | 60 | 4-6 | 3-4 | 81 | 2 |
| 28 | 25 | -3 | Northwestern | B10 | 17-13 | 8-10 | 74 | 45 | 4-6 | 6-10 | 69 | -5 |
| 29 | 33 | 4 | Miami | ACC | 18-12 | 7-9 | 59 | 29 | 4-6 | 2-7 | 52 | -7 |
I'm really not sold on Florida. Who have they beaten?
ReplyDeleteFlorida really hasn't beaten anyone, you are right. I just have a hard time putting only 2 or 3 SEC teams in the dance. I realize that league is as bad as its been in awhile and their last 10 have been poor. It was more of an eye test for me on that one, they look like a tourney team.
ReplyDeleteSame with St. Mary's, if Mills doesn't get hurt, I think they are almost a lock. But now I don't know what kind of team they are with him returning from injury. I didn't get to see the makeup game they had the other day, so I'm still torn on that team. I put them in last year because I thought they passed the smell test, this year I can't smell anything.
If I'm wrong on anyone, I think it's going to be Arizona in and Florida out. The other one is St Mary's in, and Auburn out. I just like the way the Tigers closed. They are a gritty team.