Initial Look at Bubble Teams for 2009 and Projecting the NCAA Tourney Field
TEAMS THAT I THINK ARE LOCKS/AUTOBIDS (parenthesis contain total number of bids for the conference; the first number is the locks and the second number is the total bids the conference will get as of right now).
As always, it is assumed for the major conferences that the locks will contain the conf. tourney champion. If someone who isn't a lock wins the conf. tourney, obviously a bubble spot is removed. The Bubble is very fluid the next couple days, a team like Ohio State can win it's first tourney game and they would then go to the lock category, or, as previously mentioned, a non-locked team could win its conf tourney, removing a bubble spot.
LOCKS
NUMBER ONE SEEDS: NORTH CAROLINA, UCONN, MEMPHIS, PITT
Am East (1/1) - UMBC or BINGHAMTON
ACC (5/5) - North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest , Clemson, Florida State
A. Sun (1/1) - ETSU
A-10 (1/2) - Xavier
Big East (7/7) - UConn, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Marquette, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia
Big Sky (1/1) - PORTLAND STATE
Big South (1/1) - RADFORD
Big Ten (4/8) - Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Wisconsin
Big 12 (5/6) - Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
Big West (1/1) - AUTOBID
CAA (1/1) - VCU
CUSA (1/1) - Memphis
Horizon (1/2) - CLEVELAND STATE
Ivy (1/1) - CORNELL
MAAC (1/1) - SIENNA
MAC (1/1) - AUTOBID
MEAC (1/1) - AUTOBID
MVC (1/2) - NORTHERN IOWA
MWC (2/2) - Utah, BYU
NEC (1/1) - ROBERT MORRIS
OVC (1/1) - MOREHEAD STATE
Patriot (1/1) - AMERICAN or HOLY CROSS
Pac-10 (4/5 ) - UCLA, Arizona State, Washington, California
SEC (2/3) - LSU, Tennessee
Southern (1/1) - CHATTANOOGA
Southland (1/1) - AUTOBID
Summit (1/1) - NORTH DAKOTA STATE
SWAC (1/1) - AUTOBID
Sun Belt (1/) - WESTERN KENTUCKY
WCC (1/2) - GONZAGA
WAC (1/1) - AUTOBID (Should be Utah State, if it is, a Bubble spot opens up)
CAP/BOLD TEAMS WON THEIR CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT
BUBBLE TEAMS
12 spots are up for grabs - 33 teams up for the spots.
65 teams - 31 automatic bid = 34 at large teams - 22 locks (I assume a lock wins the conf tourney)= 12 bubble teams. Or an easier way to look at it: 65 teams - 53 listed above = 12 bubble teams.
Those teams IN are noted with an asterisk (*).
ACC:
Miami
Boston College
Maryland
Virginia Tech
A10:
Dayton *
Temple
Rhode Island
BIG EAST:
Providence
BIG TEN:
Ohio State *
Michigan *
Minnesota *
Penn State *
Northwestern
BIG XII:
Oklahoma State *
Kansas State
Nebraska
C-USA:
UAB
Tulsa
HORIZON:
Butler *
MVC:
Creighton *
Illinois State
MWC:
UNLV
New Mexico
San Diego State
PAC-10:
Arizona *
USC
SEC:
Auburn
South Carolina
Florida *
Kentucky
SOUTHERN:
Davidson
WCC:
Utah State *
WCC:
St. Mary's *
| Ranking of the Bubble Teams (As of 3/11/2009) | 12 Teams | |||||||||||
| Rank | Prev. Rank | +/- | Team | Conference | Overall | Conf | RPI | SOS | L10 | Top 50 Record | Prev RPI | RPI Diiff |
| 1 | NA | #### | Oklahoma State | B12 | 21-10 | 9-7 | 25 | 9 | 7-3 | 3-9 | 25 | 0 |
| 2 | NA | #### | Ohio State | B10 | 20-9 | 10-8 | 36 | 31 | 6-4 | 5-8 | 36 | 0 |
| 3 | NA | #### | Butler | Horizon | 26-5 | 15-3 | 24 | 94 | 7-3 | 2-1 | 24 | 0 |
| 4 | NA | #### | Dayton | A10 | 25-6 | 11-5 | 23 | 95 | 6-4 | 4-2 | 23 | 0 |
| 5 | NA | #### | Utah State | WAC | 27-4 | 14-2 | 26 | 137 | 7-3 | 1-2 | 26 | 0 |
| 6 | NA | #### | Michigan | B10 | 19-12 | 9-9 | 42 | 10 | 5-5 | 6-9 | 42 | 0 |
| 7 | NA | #### | St Mary's | WCC | 25-6 | 10-4 | 45 | 144 | 7-3 | 2-3 | 45 | 0 |
| 8 | NA | #### | Arizona | P10 | 19-12 | 9-9 | 53 | 32 | 6-4 | 5-8 | 53 | 0 |
| 9 | NA | #### | Florida | SEC | 22-9 | 9-7 | 48 | 86 | 4-6 | 2-6 | 48 | 0 |
| 10 | NA | #### | Minnesota | B10 | 21-9 | 9-9 | 40 | 38 | 4-6 | 5-7 | 40 | 0 |
| 11 | NA | #### | Penn State | B10 | 21-10 | 10-8 | 64 | 82 | 5-5 | 6-8 | 64 | 0 |
| 12 | NA | #### | Creighton | MVC | 26-7 | 14-4 | 41 | 107 | 9-1 | 3-2 | 41 | 0 |
| 13 | NA | #### | UAB | CUSA | 21-10 | 11-5 | 44 | 75 | 8-2 | 0-5 | 44 | 0 |
| 14 | NA | #### | New Mexico | MWC | 21-10 | 12-4 | 58 | 80 | 8-2 | 3-4 | 58 | 0 |
| 15 | NA | #### | Boston College | ACC | 21-10 | 9-7 | 56 | 58 | 6-4 | 4-4 | 56 | 0 |
| 16 | NA | #### | South Carolina | SEC | 21-8 | 10-6 | 49 | 93 | 6-4 | 1-5 | 49 | 0 |
| 17 | NA | #### | Auburn | SEC | 21-10 | 10-6 | 66 | 71 | 8-2 | 2-5 | 66 | 0 |
| 18 | NA | #### | UNLV | MWC | 21-9 | 9-7 | 57 | 85 | 5-5 | 4-4 | 57 | 0 |
| 19 | NA | #### | Temple | A10 | 19-10 | 11-5 | 39 | 49 | 7-3 | 1-5 | 39 | 0 |
| 20 | NA | #### | Maryland | ACC | 18-12 | 7-9 | 67 | 27 | 5-5 | 2-7 | 67 | 0 |
| 21 | NA | #### | San Diego State | MWC | 21-8 | 11-5 | 43 | 66 | 7-3 | 1-5 | 43 | 0 |
| 22 | NA | #### | Kansas State | B12 | 21-10 | 9-7 | 75 | 98 | 7-3 | 3-5 | 75 | 0 |
| 23 | NA | #### | Davidson | Southern | 26-7 | 18-2 | 72 | 164 | 6-4 | 1-4 | 72 | 0 |
| 24 | NA | #### | USC | P10 | 18-12 | 9-9 | 59 | 30 | 4-6 | 2-8 | 59 | 0 |
| 25 | NA | #### | Northwestern | B10 | 17-12 | 8-10 | 69 | 45 | 5-5 | 6-9 | 69 | 0 |
| 26 | NA | #### | Rhode Island | A10 | 22-9 | 11-5 | 65 | 123 | 8-2 | 2-5 | 65 | 0 |
| 27 | NA | #### | Nebraska | B12 | 18-12 | 8-8 | 68 | 54 | 6-4 | 3-7 | 68 | 0 |
| 28 | NA | #### | Providence | Big East | 19-12 | 10-8 | 70 | 47 | 4-6 | 2-7 | 70 | 0 |
| 29 | NA | #### | Tulsa | CUSA | 22-9 | 12-4 | 61 | 97 | 8-2 | 2-6 | 61 | 0 |
| 30 | NA | #### | Illinois State | MVC | 24-9 | 11-7 | 46 | 106 | 5-5 | 2-1 | 46 | 0 |
| 31 | NA | #### | Kentucky | SEC | 19-12 | 8-8 | 81 | 62 | 3-7 | 4-6 | 81 | 0 |
| 32 | NA | #### | Virginia Tech | ACC | 17-13 | 7-9 | 63 | 23 | 3-7 | 2-8 | 63 | 0 |
| 33 | NA | #### | Miami | ACC | 18-11 | 7-9 | 52 | 24 | 4-6 | 2-7 | 52 | 0 |
NOTES: The Big Ten has a lot to lose in the Big Ten Tourney. Minnesota, Michigan, and Penn State can play themselves out of the Dance with a loss in the first round. While the SEC teams have everything to gain in their conf. tourney. Auburn and SC can punch their cards with a couple wins.
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