Thursday, January 24, 2008

Men's BB: Iowa's 2-5 Big Ten Record is Better Than It Looks

TWO WINS IS GOOD? Well, in the context I am about to present, it is.

A losing record is never a good thing, no matter how you spin it. However, Iowa is 2-5 in conference, which is exactly where I had them 7 deep into the conference schedule. Why is this a good thing? Clearly, almost anyone paying attention to NCAA basketball would come to the conclusion that the Iowa Hawkeyes were coming into the season as a team destined to finish towards the bottom of the Big Ten (personally, I saw them around the 7th spot). The reason Iowa's 2-5 Big Ten start isn't all that bad is because of the quality of opponents Iowa has faced through the first 7 games.

First, let's look at the Big Ten RPI Rankings (conference only):
Big Ten RPI
Team
1 Wisconsin
2 Indiana
3 Purdue
4 Michigan State
5 Ohio State
6 Minnesota
7 Penn State
8 Iowa
9 Illinois
10 Michigan
11 Northwestern
(RPI ranked as of today)

Second, let's calculate the SOS of each Big Ten team (conference only):

UW IU PU MSU OSU MN PSU IA IL UM NW
RPI of 10 8 10 6 9 4 11 2 5 1 7
Teams 8 10 4 3 11 11 9 1 7 3 5
Played 9 9 5 8 8 7 6 5 1 2 6
in the 7 6 8 5 3 2 1 4 2 11 10
Big Ten 11 7 9 6 4 4 2 3 10 9 1
So Far 10 8 7
9
3 10 3 8
(BT Only)






2 5 1












Total RPI 55 48 43 28 44 28 32 25 28 34 29
SOS 9.17 8 7.17 5.6 7.333 5.6 5.33 3.6 4 4.86 5.8
SOS Rank 11 10 8 5 9 5 4 1 2 3 7

BTSOS.jpg picture by storminspank

Finally, let's list out the ranking:
Big Ten SOS
Team
1 Iowa
2 Illinois
3 Michigan
4 Penn St
5 Michigan St
5 Michigan
7 Northwestern
8 Purdue
9 Ohio St
10 Indiana
11 Wisconsin

While it's true you can't play yourself (hurting the Top teams' SOS), Wisconsin has yet to play anyone in the Top 6 of the Big Ten RPI (PSU was their toughest opponent). Indiana hasn't played anyone in the Top 5. While Iowa has played all Top 5 teams, including the #2 team twice. It also makes you wonder just how good Wisconsin and Indiana truly are, as well.

So there you have it... 2-5 isn't that bad in my book.

Iowa gets both Penn State (sans Claxton) and Northwestern twice and also gets Illinois at home. Folks, those are ABSOLUTELY winnable games for Iowa. And I am also not sold on Purdue, yet, perhaps Iowa can give them trouble on the road. Minnesota has played much better than I expected, but I think the Hawks can give them a test in the Barn.

What it comes down to is that although Iowa might only win 1 or 2 out of the next 4, they have a VERY favorable last 1/3 of the schedule. That gives me hope that Iowa could finish around the .500 mark in Big Ten play, something I thought would be impossible around the time of Jarryd Cole's injury.

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