Updated Look at Bubble Teams for 2008 and Projecting the NCAA Tourney Field
TEAMS THAT I THINK ARE LOCKS/AUTOBIDS (parenthesis contain total number of bids for the conference; the first number is the locks and the second number is the total bids the conference will get as of right now)
LOCKS
NUMBER ONE SEEDS: TENNESSEE, NORTH CAROLINA, MEMPHIS, DUKE
Am East (1/1) - UMBC/Hartford
ACC (3/4) - UNC, Duke, Clemson
A. Sun (1/1) - BELMONT
A-10 (1/2) - Xavier
Big East (7/8) - Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, UCONN, Marquette, West Virginia, Pittsburgh
Big Sky (1/1) - CONF WINNER
Big South (1/1) - WINTHROP
Big Ten (4/5) - Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State
Big 12 (5/6) - Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas State, Baylor
Big West (1/1) - CONF WINNER
CAA (1/1) - GEORGE MASON
CUSA (1/1) - Memphis
Horizon (1/1) - Butler
Ivy (1/1) - CORNELL
MAAC (1/1) - SIENNA
MAC (1/1) - CONF WINNER
MEAC (1/1) - CONF WINNER
MVC (1/2) - DRAKE
MWC (2/2) - UNLV, BYU
NEC (1/1) - CONF WINNER
OVC (1/1) - AUSTIN PEAY
Patriot (1/1) - CONF WINNER
Pac-10 (4/6) - UCLA, Washington St., Stanford, USC
SEC (3/5) - Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State
Southern (1/1) - DAVIDSON
Southland (1/1) - CONF WINNER
Summit (1/1) - CONF WINNER
SWAC (1/1) - CONF WINNER
Sun Belt (1/2) - CONF WINNER
WCC (2/3) - SAN DIEGO, Gonzaga
WAC (1/1) - CONF WINNER
CAP/BOLD TEAMS WON THEIR CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT
BUBBLE TEAMS
So here's who I have on the Bubble...
12 spots are up for grabs
Those teams IN are noted with an asterisk (*).
BUBBLE TEAMS BY CONFERENCE:
ACC:
Miami *
Maryland
Virginia Tech
Florida State
A10:
UMass *
Dayton
Temple
St. Joe's
Rhode Island
BIG EAST:
Syracuse *
Villanova
BIG TEN:
Ohio State *
BIG XII:
Texas A&M *
Texas Tech
CAA:
VCU
C-USA:
UAB
Houston
HORIZON:
Cleveland State
MVC:
Illinois State *
Creighton
S. Illinois
MWC:
New Mexico
PAC-10:
Arizona *
Arizona State
Oregon *
SEC:
Arkansas*
Kentucky *
Mississippi
Florida
SUN BELT:
South Alabama *
Western Kentucky
WCC:
St. Mary's *
WAC:
Utah State
Nevada
RANKING OF BUBBLE TEAMS:
| Ranking of the Bubble Teams (As of 3/11/2008) | |||||||
| Rank | Team | Overall | Conf | RPI | SOS | L10 | Top 50 Record |
| 1 | Miami * | 20-9 | 8-8 | 27 | 33 | 6-4 | 3-3 |
| 2 | Kentucky * | 18-11 | 12-4 | 48 | 12 | 8-2 | 4-7 |
| 3 | Arkansas* | 20-10 | 9-7 | 42 | 40 | 5-5 | 4-5 |
| 4 | UMass * | 21-9 | 10-6 | 40 | 66 | 7-3 | 2-2 |
| 5 | Arizona * | 17-13 | 8-10 | 29 | 2 | 3-7 | 5-7 |
| 6 | Texas A&M * | 21-9 | 8-8 | 47 | 57 | 5-5 | 4-6 |
| 7 | Ohio State * | 19-12 | 10-8 | 49 | 21 | 4-6 | 3-9 |
| 8 | Oregon * | 18-12 | 9-9 | 53 | 30 | 6-4 | 4-8 |
| 9 | Illinois State * | 23-9 | 13-5 | 35 | 69 | 8-2 | 0-5 |
| 10 | Syracuse * | 19-12 | 9-9 | 46 | 7 | 5-5 | 2-8 |
| 11 | St. Mary's * | 24-6 | 12-2 | 38 | 137 | 7-3 | 2-3 |
| 12 | South Alabama * | 24-6 | 16-2 | 37 | 127 | 8-2 | 3-2 |
| 13 | Villanova | 19-11 | 9-9 | 56 | 56 | 6-4 | 4-6 |
| 14 | Dayton | 20-9 | 8-8 | 34 | 41 | 5-5 | 4-5 |
| 15 | Arizona State | 19-11 | 9-9 | 76 | 77 | 5-5 | 5-6 |
| 16 | Western Kentucky | 24-6 | 16-2 | 44 | 150 | 9-1 | 0-4 |
| 17 | Mississippi | 21-9 | 7-9 | 43 | 61 | 5-5 | 5-4 |
| 18 | Creighton | 20-10 | 10-8 | 51 | 72 | 6-4 | 0-6 |
| 19 | UAB | 22-9 | 12-4 | 50 | 93 | 7-3 | 1-2 |
| 20 | S. Illinois | 17-14 | 11-7 | 62 | 13 | 6-4 | 4-6 |
| 21 | Florida | 21-10 | 8-8 | 65 | 87 | 3-7 | 2-8 |
| 22 | St. Joe's | 18-11 | 9-7 | 55 | 59 | 4-6 | 3-4 |
| 23 | New Mexico | 24-7 | 11-5 | 52 | 151 | 8-2 | 1-4 |
| 24 | VCU | 24-7 | 15-3 | 54 | 155 | 8-2 | 0-2 |
| 25 | Temple | 18-12 | 11-5 | 60 | 43 | 7-3 | 2-3 |
| 26 | Virginia Tech | 18-12 | 9-7 | 57 | 46 | 6-4 | 0-6 |
| 27 | Florida State | 18-13 | 7-9 | 64 | 20 | 5-5 | 4-5 |
| 28 | Texas Tech | 15-14 | 7-9 | 59 | 3 | 4-6 | 4-9 |
| 29 | Maryland | 18-13 | 8-8 | 69 | 17 | 5-5 | 1-5 |
| 30 | Rhode Island | 21-10 | 7-9 | 67 | 105 | 3-7 | 3-4 |
| 31 | Cleveland State | 19-11 | 12-6 | 71 | 97 | 7-3 | 1-5 |
| 32 | Houston | 22-8 | 11-5 | 66 | 141 | 6-4 | 1-5 |
| 33 | Utah State | 22-9 | 12-4 | 72 | 175 | 7-3 | 0-1 |
| 34 | Nevada | 19-10 | 12-4 | 77 | 138 | 5-5 | 0-2 |
Championship Week will undoubtedly change this list and the dozen Bubble Teams.
I have a hard time putting St. Mary's, S. Alabama, W. Kentucky, et al. into the tournament as at-large bids. I think they might get the Missouri St/Air Force treatment of 2007. Good win totals, good RPI, but conference killed them. Yet somehow last year Stanford got in with an 18-12 record, 65 RPI, 32 SOS, and going 4-6 their last 10. One thing is for sure, the selection committee is consistently inconsistent when it comes down to the last 2 or 3 teams getting into the Dance. I wouldn't doubt that S. Alabama falls off the bubble at some point and time; I have a VERY hard time putting 3 WCC teams in the tournament, as well. That will probably change, too. I think either Syracuse or Villanova gets in, I can't see 9 Big East teams getting in.
Updates will happen throughout the week. Final picks set on Sunday.
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